As ocean freight rates continue to slide, shippers may be celebrating short-term wins in their tender processes. Yet, according to Drewry, one of the world’s leading ocean freight advisory firms, the real battle in 2026 will not be over base rates — but over surcharges.
Last week, a major shipper supported by Drewry in its annual ocean tender found its second-round bids for 2026 nearly 30% below current contract rates. But just days later, another Drewry client received a notice from a top-10 global carrier announcing a “substantial” increase in its Emissions Surcharge from 1 January 2026. The advisory stated that the adjustment would affect all shipments to and from the EU and EEA — yet provided no actual surcharge figures, promising to announce them unilaterally in December.
This pattern, Drewry experts warn, is part of a wider trend. Carriers and NVOCCs are increasingly separating surcharges from base freight rates — a move that allows them to recoup lost revenue later in the year, offsetting declines in total unit prices.
A Structured Approach to Surcharge Control
Drewry’s procurement specialists have seen this coming and advocate for structured, rule-based systems that prevent “uncontrolled surcharges.” Their recommended approach is straightforward: set fair surcharge levels and tie adjustments to independent, verifiable indices rather than carrier discretion.
Two well-established mechanisms stand out.
1. Drewry’s Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) Programme
For nearly a decade, this framework has been used by global shippers to standardize how fuel cost fluctuations affect freight rates. The BAF programme sets neutral “fuel consumption trade factors” for each tradelane and links quarterly surcharge changes directly to independent marine fuel indices. The result is a single, transparent BAF structure — replacing the inconsistent and often opaque formulas carriers use individually.
2. Drewry’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) Programme
Introduced ahead of the European Union’s ETS rollout in 2024, Drewry’s ETS programme applies similar logic to carbon surcharges. It establishes fair “tax constants” per tradelane — proportional to each route’s fuel consumption — and ties future surcharges to the independently reported EU carbon allowance price.
The model has been adopted by several major shippers since 2024 and is gaining traction. Drewry forecasts that by 2026 and 2027, standardized BAFs will become the dominant method for fuel-related surcharges, while ETS programmes will be widely — though not universally — adopted.
Detention and Demurrage Risks on the Rise
While most procurement teams focus on BAF and ETS, Drewry cautions that Detention and Demurrage (D&D) surcharges may represent an even greater financial risk in 2026.
Detention fees apply when shippers fail to return empty containers on time; demurrage charges arise when containers sit too long at ports. Both have long been seen as minor, technical issues — but this perception is changing fast.
According to Drewry, port congestion is re-emerging across major global trade lanes, with equipment shortages and longer dwell times already visible in 2025. Simultaneously, the container shipping sector is bracing for a surge in blank sailings as carriers attempt to counter mounting overcapacity. These combined factors, the firm warns, could drive D&D costs sharply higher next year.
As a result, Drewry recommends shippers undertake immediate contract reviews. Procurement and logistics teams should focus on tightening clauses and annexes governing D&D to ensure fair free time allowances and transparent penalty structures. The goal: minimize financial exposure and prevent unexpected cost escalations during operational disruptions.
A Call for Standardization and Transparency
For companies managing complex, multi-carrier shipping networks, standardizing surcharge mechanisms can significantly improve budget predictability. It also reduces administrative complexity — replacing dozens of varying carrier formulas with one consistent, auditable framework.
“Shippers don’t need to be experts in carbon trading or detention rules to protect themselves from uncontrolled surcharges,” Drewry experts emphasize. “What they need are clear, contractual mechanisms tied to independent data.”
Independent benchmarking, Drewry adds, helps ensure surcharges reflect genuine market changes rather than opportunistic price adjustments. This approach not only reduces disputes but also fosters fairer long-term partnerships between shippers and carriers — something both sides increasingly value in a volatile market.
With ocean freight contracts for 2026 now being finalized, Drewry’s advice is timely. The firm’s BAF and ETS programmes — combined with targeted D&D policy reviews — provide a roadmap for maintaining control amid uncertainty. As carriers adjust their strategies and regulatory costs evolve, the message is clear: winning the rate negotiation is only the beginning; keeping control of surcharges will define who truly benefits in 2026.
